Some economists and market analysts have been predicting a U.S. recession ever since last fall. They’ve been wrong before – but they’ve also been right. Rather than try to predict how the stock market will react during the next recession, investors are better off planning for a range of potential outcomes. This will help reduce the risk of losses regardless of whether or not the United States experiences a recession in 2023.
Bear in mind that stock and bond markets are forward-looking and typically priced to take into account economic conditions such as higher interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices. In response to whatever factors are in hand, the market adjusts in ways to try to keep returns on par with historical norms and practices.
In its market perspective for 2023, Merrill Lynch suggested that the economic cycle would bottom out, market returns would begin turning a corner, and investors who hold diversified portfolios would see less volatility and be positioned to fully participate in a renewed bull market.
There are several strategies you can implement to help mitigate the impact of an impending recession. Be aware, too, that these strategies are sound all-weather moves designed to help reduce your risk and maximize returns over the long term, regardless of economic and market conditions.
Diversify Your Portfolio
The recent failure of established regional banks is a reminder that there are no “safe” stocks – all stock market investing is subject to a wide range of risks. However, investors should be most wary of owning a high concentration in any single stock. After all, while it is unlikely the stock market will ever be reduced to zero, it is entirely possible for an individual stock to lose total value. This can happen due to a fall in demand, bankruptcy, corruption/embezzlement, a natural disaster, or a public relations scandal. There are many situations that are unforeseen and out of an investor’s control that can lead to substantial losses.
By diversifying your portfolio across a large number of stocks, even those within the same industry (such as competing banks), you can mitigate exposure to a single stock that experiences a major decline in performance. For 2023, Merrill Lynch recommended a broad global stock portfolio with a slight overweight in U.S. equities, including large-cap value stocks and a mixture of small-cap growth and value stocks. It contends that the Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Utilities, and Real Estate sectors offer stable returns via strong cash flow and attractive valuations.
Well-established dividend stocks pay out a steady income as well as offer growth opportunities, which is a good hedge for a strong long-term total return regardless of economic conditions.
Merrill Lynch also favors global fixed-income securities, including investment-grade corporates, 10-year Treasury bonds, and longer-maturity municipal bonds.
Fund Investing
An easy way to diversify across a wide range of stocks and/or bonds is to invest in asset category-specific mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. The immense universe of funds offers a broad range of stocks (e.g., growth, value, large-, medium- and small-cap) and bond (high yield, high quality, government, corporate) fund options. A balanced fund offers a combination of both stock and bond securities to help capture growth as well as capital preservation.
If you invest regularly through a 401(k) plan at work or defer income to an IRA, note that your money will purchase more shares when prices drop, which is often the case during a recession. As long as you have vetted and have faith in your investment choices, this discounted buying opportunity can set up your portfolio for stronger gains once the market recovers.
Cash Allocation
It is always a good idea – even more so during a recession – to hold an allocation in cash or cash-equivalent vehicles such as CDs and money market funds. However, it is not a good idea to sell stocks that have lost ground just to beef up your cash allocation. It may be better to sell a stock with significant appreciation instead, especially if it is in an industry that does not tend to perform well during a recession (e.g., Construction, Manufacturing, Retail, Leisure, and Hospitality).

Relating to a national emergency declared by the President on March 13, 2020 (HJ Res 7) – On March 13, 2020, then-President Trump declared a national emergency relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, emergency status has continued until the passage of this resolution. The national emergency status relaxed many healthcare rules, such as training mandates for nursing home aides, easier access to certain prescribed medications (e.g., Adderall, Ritalin, oxycodone, buprenorphine), and utilization of uncredentialed nurse practitioners and physician assistants for hospitalized Medicare patients. The resolution to end emergency status passed in the House on Feb. 1 and Senate on March 29. The resolution was introduced by Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) on Jan. 9 and enacted by President Biden on April 10.
The internet keeps evolving. It started with static web pages in Web 1.0 before evolving to interactive and dynamic content in Web 2.0. A new phase of technology is now introducing Web 3.0, or the third generation of The World Wide Web. Although it is a work in progress, it is necessary to understand the new concept and how it will impact the future of online interactions.
So, you filed and paid all your taxes on the money you earned in 2021. Now, the company you work for finds itself in trouble, and you are forced to pay back part of your compensation. The big question is, will the IRS refund you for the taxes you already paid related to this compensation? While this seems like a bizarre scenario at first glance, it is more common than you might think.
Now that spring is here, it might be a great time to give your finances a fresh look. Here are a few key items to put on your May to-do list.
When it comes to businesses looking to mitigate risk, one concept that’s important to explore is reproduction costs. The first step is to distinguish between reproduction and replacement costs. Replacement cost refers to how much it would cost a company to replace an asset that will duplicate the performance of the beginning asset; however, it does not necessarily have to meet the same materials, specifications, etc. Reproduction cost refers to how much it would cost a company to reproduce the asset so that it’s constructed of the same materials, specifications, etc., based on current market prices.
Estate and inheritance (“death”) taxes are levied on the transfer of property at death. The difference between an estate tax and an inheritance tax is based on who pays the bill. An estate tax is levied on the estate of the deceased, while an inheritance tax is levied on the heirs of the deceased. That’s the simple explanation. As for execution, there are far more nuances based on the monetary value of a bequest; the status of the beneficiary/(ies); and where you live when you pass away.
Liquidity refers to a business’s ability to convert its short-term assets or securities into cash quickly to meet its short-term financial obligations or pay bills due within the next 12 months. Naturally, cash is the most liquid. This is different than solvency, which refers to the ability of a business to satisfy its long-term bills.
COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023 (S 619) – This bill would authorize the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to declassify all information relating to the origin of COVID-19 and any correlation with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The ODNI would be required to redact the report as necessary to protect sources and methods and then submit it to Congress. The bill was introduced on March 1 by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO). It passed the Senate on the same day and the House on March 10. It is currently awaiting signature by the president.
Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, data analytics, and biotechnology, greatly transform society and reshape the global economy. However, these technologies also come with a significant challenge regarding ethical and social implications. Global collaboration by governments, regulators, and industry leaders can help ensure that emerging technologies are developed and deployed responsibly.