A widow or widower is eligible for a survivor’s benefit from Social Security even if they never worked – as long as the deceased spouse qualified for benefits based on his or her own income record. Also, note that surviving spouses must have been married to their most current spouse for at least the nine months prior to their passing or for 10 years if the couple was divorced.

When Can You Claim?

A widow/er may apply for benefits once she turns age 60, age 50 if she qualifies as disabled or if she is responsible for the care of a child under age 16 (or a mentally or physically disabled child aged 16 or older). However, if the widow/er applies for a surviving spouse’s benefit starting at age 60/50, that benefit will be permanently reduced from the maximum amount available if she were to wait until her own full retirement age.

What Is Full Retirement Age for the Widow/er?

For anyone born from 1945 to 1955, their full retirement age (FRA) is 66. If born between 1955 and 1959, FRA increases by two months each year from age 66 to 67. FRA is age 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later.

How Much Can You Get?

First and foremost, all Social Security beneficiaries receive the highest benefit for which they qualify. Therefore, if a surviving spouse would receive a higher benefit from her own record of earnings than that of the deceased spouse, then that’s the amount she will receive.

If the deceased was receiving Social Security disability benefits when he passed, the survivor benefit is based on the deceased’s disability benefit.

Normally, the spousal benefit equals half the benefit of the higher-earning spouse. However, the surviving spouse’s benefit equals 100 percent of what the deceased worker would have received, including any delayed retirement credits he earned by postponing benefits to age 70.

The minimum surviving spouse benefit at age 60 is 71.5 percent of the available amount. This represents a permanent loss of 28.5 percent of the benefit available at FRA. The widow/er benefit is reduced for each month shy of his or her own FRA, so the closer they get to FRA before applying, the higher the benefit. The amount freezes once they begin drawing benefits, although it will increase incrementally based on cost-of-living adjustments.

The maximum benefit a widow/er may receive is 100 percent of what the deceased spouse would receive if he was still alive. However, that amount may already be reduced. For example, if the deceased began drawing benefits at age 62 instead of waiting until FRA, then that is the maximum benefit the widow/er is eligible for. If she begins drawing early before her own FRA, that benefit will be reduced further.

Ideally, the deceased will not have started receiving Social Security before his death. In this scenario, even if he died in his 50s, his maximum benefit is what he would have received at FRA. Now it’s up to the widow/er to time her survivor benefit – she can wait until her own FRA or take a permanently reduced benefit.

Delay Strategy

One strategy a widow/er may want to consider is to begin her own benefit at age 62, even if it is less than what she would draw as a survivor. Then, she can delay drawing the survivor benefit until it grows higher – ideally, the highest benefit at her FRA.

If the widow/er does not have her own benefit from earnings or can’t live on that amount alone, she may want to withdraw income from other sources, such as retirement savings or an annuity. While that may reduce her overall net worth, it’s important to remember that the Social Security benefit continues for life, so it may be worthwhile to get the highest benefit possible. Other accounts, such as an IRA or 401(k), will stop paying out income once they are depleted.

If the widow/er has a stronger earnings record, another option is to begin drawing the survivor’s benefit early and delay taking her own benefit until FRA or age 70, to receive a higher benefit for life based on her own record. Once she applies for her own benefit, the payout will increase to a higher amount.

Seek Professional Advice

Knowing when to begin drawing a widow/ers benefit can be challenging. The best option is usually based on factors such as other income resources and even the widow’s health. If in poor health and not expected to live many years, it may be wise to begin the survivor’s benefit as soon as possible. Otherwise, it’s probably better to wait and get a higher payout for as long as she lives.

Another thing to keep in mind is that if the widow/er doesn’t know the deceased spouse’s FRA benefit at the time of death, she is not likely to find out until age 60. The Social Security shuts down the deceased’s account at death and won’t reveal the benefit until the widow/er is of qualifying age to begin receiving it. It’s always a good idea for both spouses to check (and share with each other) their accrued benefits each year so that they have accurate numbers to plan with in case one spouse passes away.

Widow/er Social Security Benefits

September 1, 2023  ·  Blog, Financial Planning, News

⏱ 5 min read

A widow or widower is eligible for a survivor’s benefit from Social Security even if they never worked – as long as the deceased spouse qualified for benefits based on his or her own income record. Also, note that surviving spouses must have been married to their most current spouse for at least the nine months prior to their passing or for 10 years if the couple was divorced.

When Can You Claim?

A widow/er may apply for benefits once she turns age 60, age 50 if she qualifies as disabled or if she is responsible for the care of a child under age 16 (or a mentally or physically disabled child aged 16 or older). However, if the widow/er applies for a surviving spouse’s benefit starting at age 60/50, that benefit will be permanently reduced from the maximum amount available if she were to wait until her own full retirement age.

What Is Full Retirement Age for the Widow/er?

For anyone born from 1945 to 1955, their full retirement age (FRA) is 66. If born between 1955 and 1959, FRA increases by two months each year from age 66 to 67. FRA is age 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later.

How Much Can You Get?

First and foremost, all Social Security beneficiaries receive the highest benefit for which they qualify. Therefore, if a surviving spouse would receive a higher benefit from her own record of earnings than that of the deceased spouse, then that’s the amount she will receive.

If the deceased was receiving Social Security disability benefits when he passed, the survivor benefit is based on the deceased’s disability benefit.

Normally, the spousal benefit equals half the benefit of the higher-earning spouse. However, the surviving spouse’s benefit equals 100 percent of what the deceased worker would have received, including any delayed retirement credits he earned by postponing benefits to age 70.

The minimum surviving spouse benefit at age 60 is 71.5 percent of the available amount. This represents a permanent loss of 28.5 percent of the benefit available at FRA. The widow/er benefit is reduced for each month shy of his or her own FRA, so the closer they get to FRA before applying, the higher the benefit. The amount freezes once they begin drawing benefits, although it will increase incrementally based on cost-of-living adjustments.

The maximum benefit a widow/er may receive is 100 percent of what the deceased spouse would receive if he was still alive. However, that amount may already be reduced. For example, if the deceased began drawing benefits at age 62 instead of waiting until FRA, then that is the maximum benefit the widow/er is eligible for. If she begins drawing early before her own FRA, that benefit will be reduced further.

Ideally, the deceased will not have started receiving Social Security before his death. In this scenario, even if he died in his 50s, his maximum benefit is what he would have received at FRA. Now it’s up to the widow/er to time her survivor benefit – she can wait until her own FRA or take a permanently reduced benefit.

Delay Strategy

One strategy a widow/er may want to consider is to begin her own benefit at age 62, even if it is less than what she would draw as a survivor. Then, she can delay drawing the survivor benefit until it grows higher – ideally, the highest benefit at her FRA.

If the widow/er does not have her own benefit from earnings or can’t live on that amount alone, she may want to withdraw income from other sources, such as retirement savings or an annuity. While that may reduce her overall net worth, it’s important to remember that the Social Security benefit continues for life, so it may be worthwhile to get the highest benefit possible. Other accounts, such as an IRA or 401(k), will stop paying out income once they are depleted.

If the widow/er has a stronger earnings record, another option is to begin drawing the survivor’s benefit early and delay taking her own benefit until FRA or age 70, to receive a higher benefit for life based on her own record. Once she applies for her own benefit, the payout will increase to a higher amount.

Seek Professional Advice

Knowing when to begin drawing a widow/ers benefit can be challenging. The best option is usually based on factors such as other income resources and even the widow’s health. If in poor health and not expected to live many years, it may be wise to begin the survivor’s benefit as soon as possible. Otherwise, it’s probably better to wait and get a higher payout for as long as she lives.

Another thing to keep in mind is that if the widow/er doesn’t know the deceased spouse’s FRA benefit at the time of death, she is not likely to find out until age 60. The Social Security shuts down the deceased’s account at death and won’t reveal the benefit until the widow/er is of qualifying age to begin receiving it. It’s always a good idea for both spouses to check (and share with each other) their accrued benefits each year so that they have accurate numbers to plan with in case one spouse passes away.

---

Disclaimer 

These articles are intended to provide general resources for the tax and accounting needs of small businesses and individuals. Service2Client LLC is the author, but is not engaged in rendering specific legal, accounting, financial or professional advice. Service2Client LLC makes no representation that the recommendations of Service2Client LLC will achieve any result. The NSAD has not reviewed any of the Service2Client LLC content. Readers are encouraged to contact a professional regarding the topics in these articles. The images linked to these articles are protected by copyright and should not be copied for any reason.

When a company decides to conduct a reverse stock split, also referred to as a stock consolidation, the number of shares available to investors is reduced.

In a normal (forward) stock split, a company increases its number of outstanding shares without changing their market value. For example, one share of stock valued at $200 may split into two shares, with the shares then valued at $100 each. So, with a shareholder who holds 10 shares for a total of value of $2,000, a traditional one-to-two (1:2) stock split would change his holding to 20 shares – still valued at $2,000. The difference is that the value of each stock would change from $200 to $100.

The opposite occurs with a reverse stock split; a company decreases its number of outstanding shares without changing their market value. Using the same example, a shareholder who owns 10 shares at $200 would hold only five shares after a 2:1 reverse stock split. However, the worth of each share would double in value to $400.

Why Conduct a Reverse Stock Split?

A reverse stock split often indicates that a company is in financial distress, its stock price is on a downward spiral and it wants to reverse that momentum by giving investors a higher share value. This makes individual stocks more valuable to sell. In many cases, the company’s sinking stock price puts it in danger of losing its place on a stock exchange, which would then limit the pool of possible buyers – particularly fund managers and stock brokers. In most cases, companies that conduct a reverse stock split are small, lightly traded companies as well as some exchange-traded funds.

Impact on Small, Retail Investors

Smaller investors are more likely to be negatively impacted by a reverse stock split because they are more likely to own fewer numbers or fractional shares. For example, if a company conducts a 20:1 reverse stock split, investors receive only one share for every 20 they hold. However, if a shareholder owns less than 20 shares, he will simply be paid cash for his shares and his position would dissolve. This also holds true if the investor owns an uneven multiple of the reverse split. In the scenario of a 20:1 stock split, if the investor held 110 shares, he would receive five new post-split shares and be paid in cash for the remaining 10 shares.

How Do Stocks Perform After a Reverse Split?

While the total value of a shareholder’s holding would not change after a reverse stock split, history has shown that share prices after a reverse split tend to stagnate or continue to drop. After all, the company was likely already in financial distress, and this action serves to increase the price of a failing stock. It does not usually entice new investors or motivate current ones to invest more money in the company.

Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of Reverse Splits

To remain listed on a major stock exchange such as the NYSE or Nasdaq, a company’s share price must trade at $5 or higher. The advantage of a reverse stock split is that it increases the value of shares, which may allow them to remain listed on a major exchange. This offers value to both the investor and the company, as exchanges attract far more investors whose interest can help drive up the stock price.

Another scenario in which a reverse stock split is advantageous is if a corporation is planning to spin off a portion of its business into a separate company. By conducting a reverse stock split before the spinoff, shares of the new company are assured of having a high enough stock price to be listed on a major stock exchange.

However, a reverse stock split is most often a signal that the company is failing, is worried about a pervasive decline in its stock price, and is seeking a way to artificially increase investor share prices.

The Ins and Outs of a Reverse Stock Split

August 1, 2023  ·  Blog, Financial Planning, News

⏱ 4 min read

When a company decides to conduct a reverse stock split, also referred to as a stock consolidation, the number of shares available to investors is reduced.

In a normal (forward) stock split, a company increases its number of outstanding shares without changing their market value. For example, one share of stock valued at $200 may split into two shares, with the shares then valued at $100 each. So, with a shareholder who holds 10 shares for a total of value of $2,000, a traditional one-to-two (1:2) stock split would change his holding to 20 shares – still valued at $2,000. The difference is that the value of each stock would change from $200 to $100.

The opposite occurs with a reverse stock split; a company decreases its number of outstanding shares without changing their market value. Using the same example, a shareholder who owns 10 shares at $200 would hold only five shares after a 2:1 reverse stock split. However, the worth of each share would double in value to $400.

Why Conduct a Reverse Stock Split?

A reverse stock split often indicates that a company is in financial distress, its stock price is on a downward spiral and it wants to reverse that momentum by giving investors a higher share value. This makes individual stocks more valuable to sell. In many cases, the company’s sinking stock price puts it in danger of losing its place on a stock exchange, which would then limit the pool of possible buyers – particularly fund managers and stock brokers. In most cases, companies that conduct a reverse stock split are small, lightly traded companies as well as some exchange-traded funds.

Impact on Small, Retail Investors

Smaller investors are more likely to be negatively impacted by a reverse stock split because they are more likely to own fewer numbers or fractional shares. For example, if a company conducts a 20:1 reverse stock split, investors receive only one share for every 20 they hold. However, if a shareholder owns less than 20 shares, he will simply be paid cash for his shares and his position would dissolve. This also holds true if the investor owns an uneven multiple of the reverse split. In the scenario of a 20:1 stock split, if the investor held 110 shares, he would receive five new post-split shares and be paid in cash for the remaining 10 shares.

How Do Stocks Perform After a Reverse Split?

While the total value of a shareholder’s holding would not change after a reverse stock split, history has shown that share prices after a reverse split tend to stagnate or continue to drop. After all, the company was likely already in financial distress, and this action serves to increase the price of a failing stock. It does not usually entice new investors or motivate current ones to invest more money in the company.

Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of Reverse Splits

To remain listed on a major stock exchange such as the NYSE or Nasdaq, a company’s share price must trade at $5 or higher. The advantage of a reverse stock split is that it increases the value of shares, which may allow them to remain listed on a major exchange. This offers value to both the investor and the company, as exchanges attract far more investors whose interest can help drive up the stock price.

Another scenario in which a reverse stock split is advantageous is if a corporation is planning to spin off a portion of its business into a separate company. By conducting a reverse stock split before the spinoff, shares of the new company are assured of having a high enough stock price to be listed on a major stock exchange.

However, a reverse stock split is most often a signal that the company is failing, is worried about a pervasive decline in its stock price, and is seeking a way to artificially increase investor share prices.

---

Disclaimer 

These articles are intended to provide general resources for the tax and accounting needs of small businesses and individuals. Service2Client LLC is the author, but is not engaged in rendering specific legal, accounting, financial or professional advice. Service2Client LLC makes no representation that the recommendations of Service2Client LLC will achieve any result. The NSAD has not reviewed any of the Service2Client LLC content. Readers are encouraged to contact a professional regarding the topics in these articles. The images linked to these articles are protected by copyright and should not be copied for any reason.

The Continuing Appropriations Act, enacted at the end of 2022, included several provisions that impact retirement plans going forward. Specifically, the legislation enacts SECURE 2.0, an updated version of the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019. The following provisions are financial planning considerations that affect individuals.

Increases Catch-up Contributions

Beginning in 2024, catch-up contributions to employer retirement plans made by employees who earn more than $145,000 a year (regularly adjusted for inflation) must be classified as after-tax Roth contributions. This is necessary for eligible plans to retain their tax-favored status.

Starting in 2025, catch-up contributions for participants ages 60 to 63 will increase from $7,500 to $10,000 per year for contributors in most qualified retirement plans. Beginning in 2026, the new catch-up contribution will be indexed to inflation.

Allows Employer Contributions to Roth 401(k)

Employers are now able to make post-tax contributions to a Roth option in an employee’s 401(k) plan. Employers also may open a Roth account option in SIMPLE, and SEP IRA plans for employees.

Expands Emergency Distributions from Retirement Accounts

Starting in 2024, there will be a new exception to the rule for early withdrawals from qualified retirement accounts. Distributions used for unforeseeable events, such as a personal or family emergency, will not be subject to the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty. However, the rule applies to only one distribution per year and only up to $1,000. The plan member has the option to repay the distribution within three years. Absent full repayment, no further emergency withdrawals may occur during those three years.

The provision also waives the withdrawal penalty on any amount for individuals certified by a physician to have a terminal illness.

Increases Age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMD)

Starting in 2023, the age that triggers required minimum distributions (and their requisite income tax liability) from qualified retirement accounts increases from 72 to 73. Starting in 2033, the trigger age raises to 75. The RMD rule apples to 401(k), 403(b) and 457(b) plans). Also, starting in 2024, Roth 401(k) accounts will no longer require RMDs.

Reduces Excise Tax on Noncompliant RMDs

If an investor is required to start taking minimum distributions and does not take out the required amount in a single year, he is subject to a tax on the amount not distributed. The tax used to be 50 percent, but starting in 2023, it was reduced to 25 percent. Moreover, if the account owner corrects the course and takes the full distribution within a certain window of time, the tax may be further reduced to only 10 percent.

Allows Emergency Savings Accounts

Starting in 2024, the legislation permits employers to offer an emergency savings account option within its retirement plan. The following provisions apply:

• Employee contributions are made with after-tax income
• There is an annual cap of $2,500
• Participants may make at least one withdrawal per month
• Up to four withdrawals per year are not subject to fees
• Emergency savings may be held in an interest-bearing cash-equivalent account
• Employers may match contributions, but those must be deposited to the participant’s retirement plan investment, not the emergency savings account.
• The emergency account is portable when the participant leaves the employer and can be rolled into a Roth-defined contribution plan or IRA

Permits Employer Match for Student Loan Payments

Presently – through 2025 – employers may contribute up to $5,250 (tax-free) a year toward worker student loan payments. Starting next year, employers have the option to classify those loan payments as contributions to the company retirement plan, such as a 401(k). This allows workers with student loans the opportunity to pay down that debt with their own income and still receive an employer match toward their retirement plan – so they don’t have to choose one or the other.

New Personal Finance Provisions in the 2.0 Secure Act

July 1, 2023  ·  Blog, Financial Planning, News

⏱ 4 min read

The Continuing Appropriations Act, enacted at the end of 2022, included several provisions that impact retirement plans going forward. Specifically, the legislation enacts SECURE 2.0, an updated version of the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019. The following provisions are financial planning considerations that affect individuals.

Increases Catch-up Contributions

Beginning in 2024, catch-up contributions to employer retirement plans made by employees who earn more than $145,000 a year (regularly adjusted for inflation) must be classified as after-tax Roth contributions. This is necessary for eligible plans to retain their tax-favored status.

Starting in 2025, catch-up contributions for participants ages 60 to 63 will increase from $7,500 to $10,000 per year for contributors in most qualified retirement plans. Beginning in 2026, the new catch-up contribution will be indexed to inflation.

Allows Employer Contributions to Roth 401(k)

Employers are now able to make post-tax contributions to a Roth option in an employee’s 401(k) plan. Employers also may open a Roth account option in SIMPLE, and SEP IRA plans for employees.

Expands Emergency Distributions from Retirement Accounts

Starting in 2024, there will be a new exception to the rule for early withdrawals from qualified retirement accounts. Distributions used for unforeseeable events, such as a personal or family emergency, will not be subject to the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty. However, the rule applies to only one distribution per year and only up to $1,000. The plan member has the option to repay the distribution within three years. Absent full repayment, no further emergency withdrawals may occur during those three years.

The provision also waives the withdrawal penalty on any amount for individuals certified by a physician to have a terminal illness.

Increases Age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMD)

Starting in 2023, the age that triggers required minimum distributions (and their requisite income tax liability) from qualified retirement accounts increases from 72 to 73. Starting in 2033, the trigger age raises to 75. The RMD rule apples to 401(k), 403(b) and 457(b) plans). Also, starting in 2024, Roth 401(k) accounts will no longer require RMDs.

Reduces Excise Tax on Noncompliant RMDs

If an investor is required to start taking minimum distributions and does not take out the required amount in a single year, he is subject to a tax on the amount not distributed. The tax used to be 50 percent, but starting in 2023, it was reduced to 25 percent. Moreover, if the account owner corrects the course and takes the full distribution within a certain window of time, the tax may be further reduced to only 10 percent.

Allows Emergency Savings Accounts

Starting in 2024, the legislation permits employers to offer an emergency savings account option within its retirement plan. The following provisions apply:

• Employee contributions are made with after-tax income
• There is an annual cap of $2,500
• Participants may make at least one withdrawal per month
• Up to four withdrawals per year are not subject to fees
• Emergency savings may be held in an interest-bearing cash-equivalent account
• Employers may match contributions, but those must be deposited to the participant’s retirement plan investment, not the emergency savings account.
• The emergency account is portable when the participant leaves the employer and can be rolled into a Roth-defined contribution plan or IRA

Permits Employer Match for Student Loan Payments

Presently – through 2025 – employers may contribute up to $5,250 (tax-free) a year toward worker student loan payments. Starting next year, employers have the option to classify those loan payments as contributions to the company retirement plan, such as a 401(k). This allows workers with student loans the opportunity to pay down that debt with their own income and still receive an employer match toward their retirement plan – so they don’t have to choose one or the other.

---

Disclaimer 

These articles are intended to provide general resources for the tax and accounting needs of small businesses and individuals. Service2Client LLC is the author, but is not engaged in rendering specific legal, accounting, financial or professional advice. Service2Client LLC makes no representation that the recommendations of Service2Client LLC will achieve any result. The NSAD has not reviewed any of the Service2Client LLC content. Readers are encouraged to contact a professional regarding the topics in these articles. The images linked to these articles are protected by copyright and should not be copied for any reason.

Some economists and market analysts have been predicting a U.S. recession ever since last fall. They’ve been wrong before – but they’ve also been right. Rather than try to predict how the stock market will react during the next recession, investors are better off planning for a range of potential outcomes. This will help reduce the risk of losses regardless of whether or not the United States experiences a recession in 2023.

Bear in mind that stock and bond markets are forward-looking and typically priced to take into account economic conditions such as higher interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices. In response to whatever factors are in hand, the market adjusts in ways to try to keep returns on par with historical norms and practices.

In its market perspective for 2023, Merrill Lynch suggested that the economic cycle would bottom out, market returns would begin turning a corner, and investors who hold diversified portfolios would see less volatility and be positioned to fully participate in a renewed bull market.

There are several strategies you can implement to help mitigate the impact of an impending recession. Be aware, too, that these strategies are sound all-weather moves designed to help reduce your risk and maximize returns over the long term, regardless of economic and market conditions.

Diversify Your Portfolio

The recent failure of established regional banks is a reminder that there are no “safe” stocks – all stock market investing is subject to a wide range of risks. However, investors should be most wary of owning a high concentration in any single stock. After all, while it is unlikely the stock market will ever be reduced to zero, it is entirely possible for an individual stock to lose total value. This can happen due to a fall in demand, bankruptcy, corruption/embezzlement, a natural disaster, or a public relations scandal. There are many situations that are unforeseen and out of an investor’s control that can lead to substantial losses.

By diversifying your portfolio across a large number of stocks, even those within the same industry (such as competing banks), you can mitigate exposure to a single stock that experiences a major decline in performance. For 2023, Merrill Lynch recommended a broad global stock portfolio with a slight overweight in U.S. equities, including large-cap value stocks and a mixture of small-cap growth and value stocks. It contends that the Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Utilities, and Real Estate sectors offer stable returns via strong cash flow and attractive valuations.

Well-established dividend stocks pay out a steady income as well as offer growth opportunities, which is a good hedge for a strong long-term total return regardless of economic conditions.

Merrill Lynch also favors global fixed-income securities, including investment-grade corporates, 10-year Treasury bonds, and longer-maturity municipal bonds.

Fund Investing

An easy way to diversify across a wide range of stocks and/or bonds is to invest in asset category-specific mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. The immense universe of funds offers a broad range of stocks (e.g., growth, value, large-, medium- and small-cap) and bond (high yield, high quality, government, corporate) fund options. A balanced fund offers a combination of both stock and bond securities to help capture growth as well as capital preservation.

If you invest regularly through a 401(k) plan at work or defer income to an IRA, note that your money will purchase more shares when prices drop, which is often the case during a recession. As long as you have vetted and have faith in your investment choices, this discounted buying opportunity can set up your portfolio for stronger gains once the market recovers.

Cash Allocation

It is always a good idea – even more so during a recession – to hold an allocation in cash or cash-equivalent vehicles such as CDs and money market funds. However, it is not a good idea to sell stocks that have lost ground just to beef up your cash allocation. It may be better to sell a stock with significant appreciation instead, especially if it is in an industry that does not tend to perform well during a recession (e.g., Construction, Manufacturing, Retail, Leisure, and Hospitality).

How To Recession-Proof Your Portfolio (Just in Case)

June 1, 2023  ·  Blog, Financial Planning, News

⏱ 4 min read

Some economists and market analysts have been predicting a U.S. recession ever since last fall. They’ve been wrong before – but they’ve also been right. Rather than try to predict how the stock market will react during the next recession, investors are better off planning for a range of potential outcomes. This will help reduce the risk of losses regardless of whether or not the United States experiences a recession in 2023.

Bear in mind that stock and bond markets are forward-looking and typically priced to take into account economic conditions such as higher interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices. In response to whatever factors are in hand, the market adjusts in ways to try to keep returns on par with historical norms and practices.

In its market perspective for 2023, Merrill Lynch suggested that the economic cycle would bottom out, market returns would begin turning a corner, and investors who hold diversified portfolios would see less volatility and be positioned to fully participate in a renewed bull market.

There are several strategies you can implement to help mitigate the impact of an impending recession. Be aware, too, that these strategies are sound all-weather moves designed to help reduce your risk and maximize returns over the long term, regardless of economic and market conditions.

Diversify Your Portfolio

The recent failure of established regional banks is a reminder that there are no “safe” stocks – all stock market investing is subject to a wide range of risks. However, investors should be most wary of owning a high concentration in any single stock. After all, while it is unlikely the stock market will ever be reduced to zero, it is entirely possible for an individual stock to lose total value. This can happen due to a fall in demand, bankruptcy, corruption/embezzlement, a natural disaster, or a public relations scandal. There are many situations that are unforeseen and out of an investor’s control that can lead to substantial losses.

By diversifying your portfolio across a large number of stocks, even those within the same industry (such as competing banks), you can mitigate exposure to a single stock that experiences a major decline in performance. For 2023, Merrill Lynch recommended a broad global stock portfolio with a slight overweight in U.S. equities, including large-cap value stocks and a mixture of small-cap growth and value stocks. It contends that the Energy, Financials, Healthcare, Utilities, and Real Estate sectors offer stable returns via strong cash flow and attractive valuations.

Well-established dividend stocks pay out a steady income as well as offer growth opportunities, which is a good hedge for a strong long-term total return regardless of economic conditions.

Merrill Lynch also favors global fixed-income securities, including investment-grade corporates, 10-year Treasury bonds, and longer-maturity municipal bonds.

Fund Investing

An easy way to diversify across a wide range of stocks and/or bonds is to invest in asset category-specific mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. The immense universe of funds offers a broad range of stocks (e.g., growth, value, large-, medium- and small-cap) and bond (high yield, high quality, government, corporate) fund options. A balanced fund offers a combination of both stock and bond securities to help capture growth as well as capital preservation.

If you invest regularly through a 401(k) plan at work or defer income to an IRA, note that your money will purchase more shares when prices drop, which is often the case during a recession. As long as you have vetted and have faith in your investment choices, this discounted buying opportunity can set up your portfolio for stronger gains once the market recovers.

Cash Allocation

It is always a good idea – even more so during a recession – to hold an allocation in cash or cash-equivalent vehicles such as CDs and money market funds. However, it is not a good idea to sell stocks that have lost ground just to beef up your cash allocation. It may be better to sell a stock with significant appreciation instead, especially if it is in an industry that does not tend to perform well during a recession (e.g., Construction, Manufacturing, Retail, Leisure, and Hospitality).

---

Disclaimer 

These articles are intended to provide general resources for the tax and accounting needs of small businesses and individuals. Service2Client LLC is the author, but is not engaged in rendering specific legal, accounting, financial or professional advice. Service2Client LLC makes no representation that the recommendations of Service2Client LLC will achieve any result. The NSAD has not reviewed any of the Service2Client LLC content. Readers are encouraged to contact a professional regarding the topics in these articles. The images linked to these articles are protected by copyright and should not be copied for any reason.